Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     66.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  18.8  21.9  18.7  21.1  21.7  21.0  21.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   4.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.6  69.3  69.3  69.3  67.7  58.6  57.2  57.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  42.0  38.0   2.0   5.0   8.0   6.0  18.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.1%        7.6%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.5%       14.1%       10.8%
 30kt / 24h        5.6%        9.0%        7.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.7%        8.8%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        3.3%        6.6%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       17.4%       10.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.0%        8.7%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.7%        1.1%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.70

 EP142026 260911 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    124.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.