Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142026 260911 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 21.3 19.0 16.6 22.2 20.1 24.0 21.5 N N N F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.8 69.3 69.3 69.3 67.7 58.6 57.2 57.2 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 52.0 34.0 23.0 17.0 23.0 8.0 32.0 24.0 N N U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 65.0 61.0 62.0 60.0 63.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.8% 2.2% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 5.8% 3.8% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 3.3% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 2.9% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.6% 2.1% 1.3% 45kt / 36h 0.6% 5.6% 3.1% 55kt / 36h 0.6% 2.1% 1.3% 55kt / 48h 2.3% 0.5% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.66 EP142026 260911 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.70 125.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.