Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  19.2  19.6  22.2  19.9  21.0  25.3  25.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         69.3  69.3  69.3  69.3  60.0  60.0  58.6  57.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  32.0  17.0   6.0  16.0  32.0  23.0  24.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  58.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.2%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        0.3%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.42

 EP142026 260912 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    126.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.