Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  14.5  20.1  19.9  15.0  21.2  20.2  24.4  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  74.3  74.3  74.3  65.0  63.6  63.6  62.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  -3.0  -2.0   8.0   4.0  35.0  10.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        0.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.42

 EP142026 260912 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.00    127.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.