Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  20.5  18.9  17.5  21.9  25.1  29.4  29.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         79.3  79.3  70.0  70.0  68.6  67.2  67.2  68.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0   5.0  13.0   0.0  37.0   3.0  19.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  64.0  63.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   0.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.16

 EP142026 260912 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    129.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.