Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  18.1  18.6  20.4  21.5  25.0  30.6  32.3  N  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  68.6  61.7  61.7  63.0  67.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0  12.0  -3.0  25.0   1.0 -13.0   4.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  60.0  59.0  60.0  63.0  62.0  63.0  57.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.90

 EP142026 260913 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.80    130.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.