Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142026 260913 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.90 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.8 18.7 18.2 21.9 23.1 27.8 29.9 33.6 N N F N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 73.6 73.6 66.7 68.0 70.8 75.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 22.0 48.0 17.0 -10.0 16.0 20.0 7.0 U U N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 60.0 61.0 63.0 62.0 66.0 61.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 1.0 -1.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.88 EP142026 260913 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.90 131.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.