Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.5  20.1  23.2  24.1  25.4  33.2  33.9  33.9  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  73.6  73.6  66.7  66.7  69.4  73.6  73.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  17.0   6.0  -5.0  27.0  40.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.0%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.64

 EP142026 260913 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.