Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP142026 260914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    137.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  28.8  30.3  34.6  41.4  45.3  45.3  45.3  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.7  71.7  69.2  70.4  74.4  77.2  77.2  77.2  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -2.0  -1.0 -10.0  53.0  11.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  62.0  63.0  62.0  59.0  58.0  58.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   2.0   3.0   4.0  -3.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.14

 EP142026 260914 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    137.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.