Rapid Intensification Guidance EP142026 260914 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.60 138.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 20.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.3 32.7 34.8 35.2 45.2 50.0 50.0 50.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.7 69.2 70.4 71.7 75.8 81.5 81.5 81.5 U U U U U N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 7.0 48.0 38.0 32.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 U U N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 62.0 62.0 59.0 59.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 5.0 3.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.14 EP142026 260914 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.60 138.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.