Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  18.8  20.7  21.7  19.6  15.2  14.3  12.6  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  30.0  22.0  17.0  10.0   6.0   2.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.7 116.5 114.4 112.4 110.5 106.6 104.8 112.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  37.0 -10.0  -8.0  13.0  56.0  27.0   6.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  49.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.9%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        7.4%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        2.7%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        2.1%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        2.5%        5.7%        4.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.56

 EP152026 260914 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    117.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  18.8  20.7  21.7  19.6  15.2  14.3  12.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  66.0  66.0  61.0  55.0  49.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%