Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.5  20.3  14.8  11.6  11.2   8.4  14.4  19.8  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  10.0   8.0   7.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 112.4 110.5 108.5 106.6 103.0 103.0 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  16.0   8.0 -11.0  20.0   0.0   1.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  60.0  57.0  55.0  54.0  47.0  48.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   4.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.2%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        3.4%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        2.3%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        4.5%        3.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 EP152026 260915 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    121.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.