Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  16.2  12.4  11.8   9.3  13.5  18.9  20.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   8.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   4.0   6.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 110.5 108.5 106.6 112.4 103.0 103.0 101.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0   6.0  -9.0 -12.0  17.0  49.0  74.0  85.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  58.0  56.0  55.0  50.0  49.0  49.0  54.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -5.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   2.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        8.8%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%        3.3%        6.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        2.5%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.3%        4.9%        4.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.28

 EP152026 260915 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    122.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.