Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.9  12.3  13.7  12.5   9.1  13.8  18.1  16.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   4.0   6.0   5.0   6.0   5.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        108.5 116.5 114.4 112.4 112.4 110.5 110.5  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0 -15.0 -11.0  -1.0 -14.0  31.0  59.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  54.0  54.0  52.0  56.0  58.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        4.4%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%       10.0%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        3.4%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        9.4%        3.4%        6.4%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        2.9%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        6.4%        5.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 EP152026 260915 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    123.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.