Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.6   9.4   7.3  10.5  10.5  10.5  10.5  10.5  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   8.0   7.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4 117.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  27.0  17.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  55.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.9%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.5%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       13.6%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        5.2%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h       16.3%        6.7%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%        5.1%        5.9%
 65kt / 72h       10.3%       13.4%       11.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 EP152026 260916 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    125.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.