Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 260917 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 131.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.6 17.1 23.6 21.5 22.7 15.6 18.3 17.1 F F N N N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 7.0 6.0 3.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.5 115.5 115.5 106.2 104.4 104.4 104.4 111.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 90.0 101.0 98.0 69.0 49.0 9.0 26.0 23.0 F F F N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 70.0 72.0 73.0 71.0 71.0 68.0 65.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.7% 6.7% 3.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.3% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 12.2% 6.3% 55kt / 36h 0.3% 4.0% 2.2% 55kt / 48h 7.7% 2.6% 5.2% 70kt / 48h 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 6.2% 3.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.28 EP152026 260917 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 131.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.