Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 260918 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 136.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.80 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.6 18.2 17.4 13.2 12.5 12.3 19.6 20.2 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 13.0 10.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 113.5 113.5 104.4 104.4 111.6 111.6 119.4 123.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 24.0 -16.0 -21.0 -36.0 -23.0 21.0 10.0 28.0 U U VU VU VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 66.0 67.0 65.0 67.0 67.0 73.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 -3.0 -4.0 1.0 -4.0 N N N N N F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.8% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 5.4% 2.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 5.0% 1.8% 3.4% 70kt / 48h 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 65kt / 72h 0.5% 4.2% 2.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 EP152026 260918 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.50 136.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.