Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 260919 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 137.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 50.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.1 17.7 16.8 15.6 10.8 13.3 16.1 21.0 N F F F F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 6.0 1.0 4.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 96.1 94.6 88.6 87.2 94.6 96.1 104.4 106.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -32.0 -43.0 -12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -9.0 19.0 27.0 VU VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 63.0 60.0 59.0 63.0 63.0 65.0 65.0 N N N U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 -3.0 -5.0 -2.0 0.0 -5.0 -1.0 N N N F N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.1% 1.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 4.3% 1.6% 3.0% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 0.6% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 1.6% 0.8% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.96 EP152026 260919 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 137.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.