Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  26.4  29.7  32.6  27.8  23.9  23.8  22.3  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   9.0  10.0   9.0  18.0  31.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.4 119.4 125.7 125.7 130.1 130.1 130.1 130.1  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0   8.0   6.0  12.0  43.0  49.0  75.0  69.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  66.0  69.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.8%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        3.5%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.54

 EP152026 260920 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    141.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     43.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  26.4  29.7  32.6  27.8  23.9  23.8  22.3  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  63.0  66.0  69.0  77.0  77.0  80.0  81.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   2.0   1.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%