Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  25.8  20.7  18.6  18.8  10.9  17.6  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  18.0  26.0  30.0  24.0  22.0  29.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 117.4 113.5 108.0 108.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    72.0  62.0  63.0  45.0  54.0  71.0  82.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.4%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.5%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        8.1%        2.6%        5.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        1.9%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%        7.3%        7.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP152026 260921 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    146.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.9  25.8  20.7  18.6  18.8  10.9  17.6  18.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  75.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%