Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    146.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  19.6  18.4  20.0  11.5  12.9  17.2  19.9  N  N  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  24.0  30.0  28.0  24.0  27.0  22.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 117.4 117.4 117.4 111.6 108.0 104.4 106.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  63.0  45.0  36.0  61.0  68.0  84.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       10.1%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        3.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h       16.2%        6.6%       11.4%
 70kt / 48h        6.6%        3.9%        5.3%
 65kt / 72h        9.2%        9.6%        9.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.52

 EP152026 260922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    146.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     71.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  19.6  18.4  20.0  11.5  12.9  17.2  19.9  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  70.0  73.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%