Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    147.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  15.4  19.0  19.8   7.0  16.7  19.8  22.4  N  F  N  N VF  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   22.0  30.0  28.0  25.0  28.0  21.0   9.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.4 117.4 111.6 111.6 108.0 104.4 104.4 106.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  31.0  48.0  62.0  53.0  71.0  83.0  96.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  68.0  63.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       13.3%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.9%        2.9%
 55kt / 48h       19.6%        8.8%       14.2%
 70kt / 48h        8.8%        4.9%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h        8.0%        9.7%        8.9%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.34

 EP152026 260922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    147.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.