Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  18.7  19.8  15.1  16.9  16.0  18.5  25.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  30.0  25.0  21.0  20.0  20.0  21.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 123.6 123.6 123.6 119.4 119.4 113.5 108.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  42.0  45.0  51.0  64.0  93.0 115.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  77.0  81.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  77.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.8%        3.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.4%       14.8%        8.1%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        5.2%        3.1%
 55kt / 48h       11.8%        4.5%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        5.3%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        6.6%       13.0%        9.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP152026 260922 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    148.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  18.7  19.8  15.1  16.9  16.0  18.5  25.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  77.0  81.0  83.0  84.0  83.0  81.0  77.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%