Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    152.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  12.1  12.6  18.5  17.1  21.7  23.0  25.2  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  24.0  18.0  11.0  10.0   8.0  10.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        123.6 119.4 119.4 119.4 119.4 113.5 109.8 108.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  73.0  40.0  48.0  67.0  94.0  45.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  72.0  67.0  60.0  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%       15.9%        9.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        7.6%        4.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        6.6%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.7%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       30.0%       15.9%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%       15.1%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h       12.4%        4.7%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.7%       10.4%        7.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%       12.9%        7.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.58

 EP152026 260923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30    152.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  12.1  12.6  18.5  17.1  21.7  23.0  25.2  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  75.0  74.0  75.0  77.0  72.0  67.0  60.0  U  U  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   1.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%