Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    154.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     49.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  21.0  22.2  20.5  26.2  25.6  24.7  16.8  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  13.0  10.0   8.0  10.0  15.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.4 114.4 114.4 114.4 108.5 104.8 101.2  99.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  27.0  51.0  65.0  78.0  60.0   8.0  10.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  58.0  51.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        2.1%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       12.0%        7.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        5.2%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.5%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.6%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%       18.9%       10.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.0%        7.8%        4.4%
 55kt / 48h        8.3%        2.7%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.7%        4.4%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        6.1%        3.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.50

 EP152026 260923 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40    154.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.8  21.0  22.2  20.5  26.2  25.6  24.7  16.8  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  75.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  67.0  58.0  51.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%