Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 260924 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 156.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 37.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.70 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.5 19.6 21.3 22.7 24.0 26.3 13.7 13.9 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 8.0 8.0 11.0 14.0 9.0 8.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.5 98.5 98.5 94.8 94.8 93.0 93.0 94.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 91.0 114.0 63.0 21.0 64.0 0.0 -43.0 N F F N U N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 69.0 71.0 73.0 69.0 57.0 51.0 50.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 0.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 25kt / 24h 4.1% 10.5% 7.3% 30kt / 24h 2.1% 4.4% 3.2% 35kt / 24h 1.1% 3.9% 2.5% 40kt / 24h 1.1% 3.4% 2.3% 45kt / 36h 2.6% 14.1% 8.3% 55kt / 36h 1.6% 5.1% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 9.1% 2.9% 6.0% 70kt / 48h 2.9% 2.6% 2.8% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 4.4% 2.6% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.22 EP152026 260924 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.80 156.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.