Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 260924 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 156.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 43.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.8 18.8 21.2 23.9 27.4 21.2 11.2 9.6 N N N N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 12.0 10.0 13.0 25.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 88.5 88.5 88.5 84.8 83.0 83.0 83.0 84.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 87.0 100.0 59.0 29.0 40.0 21.0 2.0 F F F N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 73.0 71.0 71.0 64.0 53.0 47.0 49.0 N N N N N U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.2% 4.2% 5.2% 25kt / 24h 7.9% 15.0% 11.4% 30kt / 24h 4.6% 7.7% 6.2% 35kt / 24h 3.1% 7.5% 5.3% 40kt / 24h 3.1% 6.4% 4.8% 45kt / 36h 3.6% 14.0% 8.8% 55kt / 36h 2.0% 5.2% 3.6% 55kt / 48h 6.9% 1.9% 4.4% 70kt / 48h 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 65kt / 72h 0.8% 4.1% 2.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.22 EP152026 260924 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 156.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.