Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 260925 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 156.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 35.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.5 21.8 26.7 30.6 22.6 10.4 9.5 11.8 N N N U N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 8.0 11.0 13.0 14.0 10.0 15.0 27.0 38.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 78.5 78.5 74.8 74.8 73.0 73.0 74.8 82.4 N N U U U U U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 114.0 80.0 53.0 84.0 46.0 -11.0 -17.0 -16.0 F N N N N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 71.0 65.0 64.0 50.0 44.0 44.0 43.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 -3.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.3% 6.6% 9.0% 25kt / 24h 11.2% 15.2% 13.2% 30kt / 24h 7.1% 9.2% 8.2% 35kt / 24h 4.2% 9.2% 6.7% 40kt / 24h 3.6% 7.6% 5.6% 45kt / 36h 3.6% 10.4% 7.0% 55kt / 36h 1.7% 3.7% 2.7% 55kt / 48h 9.3% 2.2% 5.8% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 3.6% 2.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.18 EP152026 260925 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 156.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.