Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  26.0  29.0  28.3  14.4  10.1   9.4  12.4  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  13.0  13.0  14.0  11.0  16.0  25.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         68.5  64.8  64.8  64.8  63.0  64.8  66.6  70.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  82.0  70.0  72.0  11.0 -30.0 -32.0  23.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  69.0  64.0  58.0  48.0  46.0  44.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.6%        8.5%       16.0%
 25kt / 24h       14.4%       14.8%       14.6%
 30kt / 24h       12.3%        9.8%       11.0%
 35kt / 24h       10.3%        9.8%       10.0%
 40kt / 24h        9.2%        8.7%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h        6.6%       10.6%        8.6%
 55kt / 36h        3.6%        4.0%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.6%        2.1%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 EP152026 260925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.20    155.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.