Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    155.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     87.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  23.4  15.9  13.3  11.0  10.9  18.3  29.7  U  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  11.0  10.0  11.0  26.0  30.0  38.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.8  43.0  43.0  43.0  46.6  48.5  54.4  58.6  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  10.0   6.0 -13.0 -24.0   7.0  13.0  24.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  48.0  44.0  41.0  40.0  40.0  45.0  48.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%        2.8%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.3%        5.5%        4.9%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%        4.0%        4.0%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%        3.7%        3.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.94

 EP152026 260926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    155.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.