Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  17.4  12.7  11.7  15.2  26.8  29.3  37.1  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  17.0  24.0  29.0  42.0  19.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.8  44.8  44.8  46.6  48.5  54.4  58.6  56.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -21.0 -22.0 -16.0  18.0  -9.0  44.0  58.0  U VU VU  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   44.0  43.0  40.0  39.0  39.0  46.0  51.0  57.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  10.0  20.0  22.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.5%        1.7%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        3.2%        2.3%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        2.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.02

 EP152026 260926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.