Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    156.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  16.7  16.2  16.0  24.4  30.3  41.8  36.1  F  F  F  F  N  N VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  23.0  25.0  30.0  42.0  18.0  18.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         54.8  56.6  56.6  58.5  64.4  68.6  62.4  60.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -28.0 -22.0 -18.0  14.0  -5.0  36.0  42.0  54.0 VU VU  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   40.0  39.0  38.0  43.0  48.0  53.0  60.0  61.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0  11.0  23.0  24.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.2%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.6%        4.7%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.6%        3.7%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.1%        2.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        2.3%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%        2.3%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.08

 EP152026 260927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    156.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.