Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 260928 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 160.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 29.3 29.4 35.4 41.5 41.8 46.8 39.4 N N N U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 31.0 20.0 16.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 7.4 11.5 13.6 13.6 7.4 3.5 3.5 1.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -26.0 -20.0 -7.0 7.0 32.0 58.0 -30.0 -20.0 VU VU U U N N VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 48.0 52.0 56.0 54.0 48.0 43.0 VU VU U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 8.0 15.0 12.0 14.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 N U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 EP152026 260928 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 160.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 35.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 29.3 29.4 35.4 41.5 41.8 46.8 39.4 N N N F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 46.0 48.0 52.0 56.0 54.0 48.0 43.0 VF VF F F F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 8.0 15.0 12.0 14.0 2.0 0.0 -1.0 N F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 11.6% 5.8%