Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 260928 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 161.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 73.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.1 29.9 36.5 42.3 40.3 47.8 43.4 39.6 N N U VU U VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 29.0 18.0 16.0 19.0 16.0 14.0 11.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 11.5 13.6 13.6 11.5 7.4 3.5 5.5 3.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -20.0 -1.0 3.0 -4.0 108.0 6.0 -12.0 35.0 VU U U U F U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 52.0 55.0 55.0 50.0 38.0 36.0 VU U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 10.0 11.0 14.0 10.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 N U U U U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.60 EP152026 260928 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 161.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.1 29.9 36.5 42.3 40.3 47.8 43.4 39.6 N N F VF F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 52.0 55.0 55.0 50.0 38.0 36.0 VF F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 10.0 11.0 14.0 10.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 N F F F F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 16.2% 8.1%