Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    164.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     59.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.3  36.9  40.5  45.1  39.5  37.4  30.3  35.5 VU  U  U VU  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  17.0  14.0  13.0  15.0  17.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.5  42.4  40.5  40.5  40.5  40.5  42.4  40.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    52.0 101.0  30.0   0.0   0.0  -6.0  -3.0  12.0  N  F  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  54.0  50.0  48.0  44.0  46.0  45.0  46.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0   7.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.44

 EP152026 260929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    164.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.