Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 260930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    164.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  49.5  49.1  46.2  42.0  34.4  38.8  31.1 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  12.0  12.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.5  60.5  60.5  60.5  60.5  62.4  60.5  62.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   0.0 -30.0 -17.0  -2.0  13.0   4.0 -15.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  43.0  42.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  43.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.32

 EP152026 260930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.80    164.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.