Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261001 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 165.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.30 F TC SIZE [%] 77.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.1 33.7 32.7 30.0 17.7 10.6 10.7 13.9 U U U N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 17.0 15.0 13.0 13.0 17.0 17.0 23.0 40.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 90.5 92.4 92.4 88.5 92.4 96.5 98.6 102.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -2.0 15.0 -22.0 -49.0 -41.0 -6.0 -6.0 -21.0 U U VU VU VU U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 48.0 49.0 50.0 45.0 44.0 45.0 45.0 VU U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -5.0 -4.0 8.0 0.0 N N N N F F U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 EP152026 261001 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.00 165.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.