Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 261002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    165.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  36.5  28.8  24.1  14.5  12.3  10.6  17.2  U  U  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  11.0  15.0  24.0  13.0  36.0  20.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         88.5  88.5  88.5  88.5  94.4  96.5 100.7 100.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0 -27.0 -48.0 -23.0 -46.0  10.0   5.0  -8.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  50.0  48.0  47.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        0.4%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.22

 EP152026 261002 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.80    165.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.