Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 261002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    166.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  28.3  21.3  15.8  12.8  15.2  15.1  19.1  U  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  19.0  26.0  19.0  18.0  17.0  37.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.5  83.5  85.5  87.4  91.5  93.6  95.7  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -33.0 -60.0 -35.0 -21.0   5.0  15.0   5.0 -91.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  45.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  47.0  45.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0  -4.0  -5.0  -5.0   7.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        0.5%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        2.8%        0.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.4%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.26

 EP152026 261002 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    166.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.