Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261003 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 168.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.4 15.6 13.5 16.5 14.1 14.4 24.4 27.0 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 13.0 17.0 36.0 20.0 25.0 24.0 47.0 U U U U U U U N Potential [kt] 72.4 74.4 74.4 76.5 80.7 80.7 76.5 78.6 U U U U N N U N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -17.0 -34.0 5.0 33.0 41.0 17.0-105.0 -76.0 U VU U N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 41.0 42.0 43.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -5.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 15.5% 9.9% 12.7% 25kt / 24h 14.8% 21.6% 18.2% 30kt / 24h 14.8% 17.1% 15.9% 35kt / 24h 11.9% 17.1% 14.5% 40kt / 24h 10.8% 17.1% 13.9% 45kt / 36h 9.9% 15.9% 12.9% 55kt / 36h 6.9% 7.3% 7.1% 55kt / 48h 17.0% 5.9% 11.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 EP152026 261003 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 168.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.