Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261003 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 169.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.30 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 12.7 17.2 14.9 15.9 17.3 27.0 27.4 F F F F F F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 16.0 36.0 20.0 38.0 26.0 26.0 30.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 54.4 54.4 56.5 58.6 60.7 60.7 56.5 62.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -41.0 -7.0 9.0 2.0 34.0 -47.0-118.0 -63.0 VU U U U N VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 42.0 41.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 0.0 10.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 -4.0 N N N U N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 37.4% 10.9% 24.1% 25kt / 24h 17.7% 13.7% 15.7% 30kt / 24h 17.7% 10.3% 14.0% 35kt / 24h 17.7% 10.3% 14.0% 40kt / 24h 17.7% 10.3% 14.0% 45kt / 36h 29.3% 11.5% 20.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 EP152026 261003 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 169.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 12.7 17.2 14.9 15.9 17.3 27.0 27.4 U U N U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 42.0 41.0 45.0 43.0 43.0 43.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -3.0 0.0 10.0 2.0 5.0 0.0 -4.0 N N N F N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4%