Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261003 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 170.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 16.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 17.7 13.8 14.8 13.9 19.5 22.9 28.4 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 34.0 18.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 47.0 32.0 U U U U U U N U Potential [kt] 51.5 51.5 53.6 55.7 55.7 51.5 53.6 60.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 -1.0 -8.0 7.0 -15.0-144.0 -74.0 -84.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 41.0 40.0 42.0 43.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -1.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 -5.0 F N U N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 37.9% 9.7% 23.8% 25kt / 24h 24.7% 12.1% 18.4% 30kt / 24h 24.7% 8.5% 16.6% 35kt / 24h 24.7% 8.5% 16.6% 40kt / 24h 24.7% 8.5% 16.6% 45kt / 36h 35.1% 10.1% 22.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.64 EP152026 261003 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 170.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.0 17.7 13.8 14.8 13.9 19.5 22.9 28.4 U N U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 41.0 40.0 42.0 43.0 42.0 42.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -1.0 8.0 6.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 -5.0 U N F N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6%