Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261004 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 174.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 67.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 29.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 16.5 16.9 12.3 23.1 25.4 31.2 31.2 F F F F N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 26.0 40.0 26.0 26.0 40.0 30.0 30.0 U U N U U N U U Potential [kt] 43.6 45.7 47.9 45.7 41.5 45.7 50.1 50.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 10.0 -1.0 5.0-100.0 -39.0 -83.0 -83.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 41.0 43.0 42.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 -9.0 -13.0 -13.0 U U N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 16.1% 7.5% 11.8% 25kt / 24h 9.7% 10.9% 10.3% 30kt / 24h 9.7% 9.0% 9.4% 35kt / 24h 6.3% 8.3% 7.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.78 EP152026 261004 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.30 174.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.4 16.5 16.9 12.3 23.1 25.4 31.2 31.2 U N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 41.0 43.0 42.0 40.0 39.0 37.0 37.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 11.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 -9.0 -13.0 -13.0 F F N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.6% 1.8%