Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261004 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 175.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 17.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 174.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 17.1 14.0 19.5 28.7 29.4 38.1 38.1 F F F N N N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 39.0 25.0 26.0 29.0 31.0 20.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.7 53.6 55.7 55.7 51.5 57.9 60.1 60.1 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 39.0 14.0 -31.0-107.0 -60.0 -36.0 -36.0 U N U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 42.0 41.0 39.0 38.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -2.0 2.0 -1.0 -2.0 -6.0 -12.0 -12.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 25kt / 24h 2.9% 3.4% 3.1% 30kt / 24h 2.9% 2.5% 2.7% 35kt / 24h 2.9% 2.0% 2.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.4% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 2.5% 0.8% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.76 EP152026 261004 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.50 175.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 174.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.2 17.1 14.0 19.5 28.7 29.4 38.1 38.1 U N U N N N F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 42.0 41.0 39.0 38.0 35.0 35.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 -2.0 2.0 -1.0 -2.0 -6.0 -12.0 -12.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 3.5% 1.7%