Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP152026 261004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    177.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     48.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    384.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  16.0  19.4  28.9  26.6  36.8  36.8  36.8  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  26.0  28.0  26.0  41.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.6  55.7  55.7  51.5  55.7  60.1  60.1  60.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  -6.0 -47.0 -86.0 -77.0 -68.0 -68.0 -68.0  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  37.0  37.0  37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.0%        2.7%        3.4%
 25kt / 24h       50.6%        3.5%       27.0%
 30kt / 24h       50.6%        2.5%       26.6%
 35kt / 24h       50.6%        2.0%       26.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        1.0%        2.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 EP152026 261004 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    177.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    384.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  16.0  19.4  28.9  26.6  36.8  36.8  36.8  N  U  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  42.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  37.0  37.0  37.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  -4.0  -9.0  -9.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        4.1%        2.0%