Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261005 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 179.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 51.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 30.7 31.0 28.2 35.2 36.0 37.5 30.6 N U U N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 129.0 118.0 114.0 116.0 96.0 78.0 77.0 89.0 VF F F F F N N F Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -36.0 -97.0 -93.0 -37.0 -89.0 -34.0 -11.0 0.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 36.0 35.0 32.0 31.0 31.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -6.0 -5.0 -13.0 -4.0 -6.0 -5.0 N N F F VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 42.6% 15.0% 28.8% 25kt / 24h 19.9% 15.0% 17.4% 30kt / 24h 19.9% 11.6% 15.7% 35kt / 24h 19.0% 9.8% 14.4% 40kt / 24h 7.2% 7.0% 7.1% 45kt / 36h 44.1% 6.6% 25.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.58 EP152026 261005 00UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 179.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 94.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 30.7 31.0 28.2 35.2 36.0 37.5 30.6 N N N N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 39.0 36.0 35.0 32.0 31.0 31.0 35.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -6.0 -5.0 -13.0 -4.0 -6.0 -5.0 N N U U VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 8.3% 4.2%