Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261005 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.30 177.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 23.9 24.0 31.3 42.2 46.4 37.2 30.4 N N N U VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 119.0 115.0 115.0 116.0 96.0 82.0 78.0 76.0 F F F F F N N N Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -57.0 -63.0 -59.0 -64.0 -60.0 -14.0 -26.0 26.0 VU VU VU VU VU U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 39.0 37.0 37.0 39.0 39.0 37.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -6.0 -8.0 2.0 3.0 -18.0 7.0 N N F F N N VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 17.0% 7.8% 12.4% 25kt / 24h 11.6% 10.3% 11.0% 30kt / 24h 11.6% 7.8% 9.7% 35kt / 24h 10.8% 6.4% 8.6% 40kt / 24h 2.3% 4.1% 3.2% 45kt / 36h 27.3% 3.2% 15.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 EP152026 261005 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.30 177.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 23.9 24.0 31.3 42.2 46.4 37.2 30.4 N N N N VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 39.0 37.0 37.0 39.0 39.0 37.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -6.0 -8.0 2.0 3.0 -18.0 7.0 N N U U N N VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 10.5% 5.3%