Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261005 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.60 176.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.7 28.2 29.8 35.1 36.7 37.5 30.6 26.7 U N N U U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 114.0 116.0 110.0 96.0 77.0 77.0 88.0 70.0 F F F F N N F N Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -93.0 -37.0 -41.0 -89.0 -34.0 -11.0 0.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 35.0 34.0 32.0 30.0 31.0 35.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -5.0 -6.0 -13.0 -4.0 -6.0 -6.0 1.0 F F F VF F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.8% 2.7% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 2.9% 3.2% 3.0% 30kt / 24h 2.9% 2.1% 2.5% 35kt / 24h 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 11.9% 1.1% 6.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 EP152026 261005 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.60 176.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.7 28.2 29.8 35.1 36.7 37.5 30.6 26.7 N N N F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 35.0 34.0 32.0 30.0 31.0 35.0 36.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -5.0 -6.0 -13.0 -4.0 -6.0 -6.0 1.0 U U U VU U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 18.1% 9.1%