Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261006 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.70 173.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 51.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 37.6 38.5 43.8 41.4 33.2 29.9 31.8 N U U VU VU U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 109.0 101.0 94.0 87.0 79.0 95.0 62.0 53.0 F F F N N F N N Potential [kt] 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -49.0 -31.0 -38.0 -19.0 -12.0 45.0 35.0 81.0 VU VU VU U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 35.0 34.0 30.0 28.0 30.0 36.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -20.0 -24.0 -10.0 -8.0 -13.0 8.0 34.0 N VF VF F F VF U VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.4% 2.3% 4.9% 25kt / 24h 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 30kt / 24h 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 1.3% 0.9% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 8.2% 0.6% 4.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.98 EP152026 261006 00UTC Storm Located at : 25.70 173.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 37.6 38.5 43.8 41.4 33.2 29.9 31.8 N F F VF VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 35.0 34.0 30.0 28.0 30.0 36.0 36.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -20.0 -24.0 -10.0 -8.0 -13.0 8.0 34.0 N VU VU U U VU F VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 2.8% 21.7% 12.2%