Rapid Intensification Guidance EP152026 261007 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.90 162.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 84.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.4 33.7 27.3 27.5 29.3 40.1 50.9 71.2 U U N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 73.0 76.0 84.0 75.0 19.0 50.0 49.0 41.0 N N N N U N N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -23.0 10.0 46.0 15.0 40.0 63.0 42.0 58.0 VU U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 25.0 29.0 33.0 34.0 38.0 41.0 41.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 2.0 -2.0 6.0 23.0 25.0 40.0 25.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 1.6% 1.7% 25kt / 24h 5.6% 10.1% 7.8% 30kt / 24h 3.2% 6.3% 4.7% 35kt / 24h 2.2% 6.0% 4.1% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 4.3% 2.5% 45kt / 36h 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 2.6% 0.1% 1.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.72 EP152026 261007 06UTC Storm Located at : 25.90 162.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.4 33.7 27.3 27.5 29.3 40.1 50.9 71.2 F F N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 25.0 29.0 33.0 34.0 38.0 41.0 41.0 38.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 2.0 -2.0 6.0 23.0 25.0 40.0 25.0 N N N N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.3% 5.3% 2.8%